aLf's "Water and Ice"

2026 Ice-Out: April 20, 2026 @ 7:00 PM

2025 Days of Ice: 133 (Three days more than average)

Average Days of Water: 234.645 (as of 2025)

Average Days of Ice: 130.710 (as of 2025)

Average Ice-Out Date: April 21

Average Ice-In Date: December 12

aLf predicts 2026 Ice-in: December 12, 2026

My winter 2026 Ice-In calculations are figured as follows:

As of 2025 the average amount of elapsed days to ice-in after New Year's Day is 110.344 days, which equates to an ice-out date of: 12/12/26. (Using days from New Year's places the averages more on the calendar, i.e. leap year dates, etc. It uses the sun angle and the latitude of Lake Lucerne). Leap Year will not occur until 2028. Make sure you factor in the extra day for your ice-in calculations.

As of 2025 the average amount of elapsed days to ice-in after the previous ice-out is 234.645 days, which equates to an ice-in date of: 12/11/26. (Using days from the previous ice-out computes the true average days of water only from Lucerne - Ice history). This is an odd year where both elapsed days and days since New Years are the same, December 12.

"Past performance is no guarantee of future results". *** The Knottlane Legal Department added that... The average of the two dates is: December 12 @ 12:13 PM.

Picking these dates is not scientific and the numbers are just that - numbers. aLf has been analyzing this data for 30+ years. In that time his expertise and knowledge of the criteria involved has allowed him to pick the right date of either ice-in or out a total of zero times. Only God and next year's lucky winner know the true date and time.